CurrentAffairs : Another war in the Middle-East a foregone conclusion?
The clock is ticking away on the Iran nuclear issue. More and more people are now veering towards the view that another war in the Middle East is not a matter of 'if' but 'when'. The BBC did a wonderful documentary on this issue recently, which was quite alarming, for the facts they presented.The U.S might have been cornered on Iraq and might be about to open channels of discussion with Iran and Syria on the same, due to the recent setbacks the Republicans had to suffer in the Mid-Terms elections, but that doesn't take anything away from the fact that BOTH the Republican and the Democrats are united in their stance that Iran, under no circumstance, should acquire nuclear weapons. This stance is shared by Europe. Israel, of course, views this matter as a question on which its very survival depends, since it suspects that the nuclear option is primarily meant to be used against Israel.
It is now basically a question of which of these three, muster the courage to take the gauntlet and strike Iran. The Americans are capable, but hobbling in Iraq and can hardly commit themselves into a third war in the Middle East , all at the same time. Public opinion in the States is strongly against pulling "our boys' out of Iraq. The European Union is a bunch of namby pambies, who can bark but never bite. Europe has not fought in a major war since almost 50 years now and the guns and will to fight, in Europe, have long since gathered rust.
That leaves the Israelis to do the dirty work and in the most likely scenario, would form the willing shoulder through which the U.S and Europe would fire. Some people (like the Vice president) in the higher echeleons of power in Israel are extreme hawks and have advocated pre-emptive strikes against Iran for long.
No one can predict the exact time, when the strike will happen. But what's reasonable to expect that the air strikes against Iran's nuclear facilities would occur, in advance of Iran coming closer to build the bomb, which could be anywhere from a few months to a year or two away, but no more.
The consequences of such a strike are not hard to imagine. Oil price would probably surge past $80 a barrel, leading to inflationary pressures throughout the world. Commodities will shoot up. Gold will almost certainly reach record highs with the dollar loosing in value.The more prolonged the war and the more countries in the Gulf that get sucked in the conflict, more the impact on oil and commodities. Stocks will almost certainly undergo a severe correction, during and after the end of the war.
It could well be a 'dirty' war. The Iraq war seemed to be over in days when the allies captured it in lightening speed, but turned messier by the day. Iran , on the other hand, has learned its lesssons from this, and is said to be training hundreds, if not thousands of fidayeen (suicide troops). It has missiles in its armory which can strike upto w.europe, should the need arise and some of them can carry nuclear war heads.
In his astrological predictions the famous astrologer Nostradamus had predicted of a terrible third world war, which would wreck destruction all over. Lets pray that he would be wrong.
